Happening: The Ukraine War 2022

The Last Argument of Kings

On 22/2/22, Putin decided to become a King. Cannons are their last arguments.

My ultimate predictions (made a few hours before the fireworks started):

Anatoly Karlin (🚀,🧬) @akarlin0

* Russia-Ukraine War within 48 hours (70%). * Serious resistance will last <week (90%), perhaps only 1-2 days (40%). * Eventually integrated into RF: Donbass: 90%; Novorossiya: 70%; Ukraine in ~1939 borders: 40%; +Volhynia: 20%; +Galicia 15%. #prediction

Since Substack isn’t optimal for fast-flowing discussions, I have opened a Discord server for my followers and subscribers.

You can follow the conflict (and other things) here: https://discord.gg/Gb5RB4kSuh

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I tend to stay away from moralistic judgments as they are highly subjective and of scant interest to me. But I will make a brief exception here. It would have been vastly better for all concerned had the unity of the Russian World - brutally contorted under the Bolsheviks, outright torn apart in the Belovezha Betrayal - been restored through boring but bloodless bureaucratic integration vehicles before the Euromaidan ruled it out, or even genuine federalization under Minsk II, had it ever been conscientiously implemented. It is Western Supremacists and their local collaborators who hoodwinked part of our people with sweet lies and false promises, humiliating and exploiting them even as they turned their hands against their brothers and sisters, who are the real authors of the present war. All the blood is on their hands. They started this war, but I believe that we will end it, quickly and humanely, and then we will make the miscreants answer for their crimes.